ZooRisk: Quantitative Assessment of Zoonotic Disease Risk

Overview

ZooRisk provides transparent quantitative tools for zoonotic disease risk, including exposure, transmission, spillover, One Health comparison, transmission-network analysis, uncertainty simulation, and sensitivity analysis.

Risk assessment

risk <- zoonotic_risk(.20, .35, .10, .60)
risk
#> ZooRisk quantitative zoonotic risk
#> Overall risk: 0.004200
#>       component probability
#>      prevalence        0.20
#>        exposure        0.35
#>    transmission        0.10
#>  susceptibility        0.60
summary(risk)
#>     risk          model
#> 1 0.0042 multiplicative

Simulation

sim <- risk_simulate(
  prevalence = c(.10, .30),
  exposure = c(.20, .50),
  transmission = c(.02, .10),
  susceptibility = c(.40, .80),
  n_sim = 1000,
  seed = 42
)
monte_carlo_risk(sim)
#>   statistic        value
#> 1      mean 0.0025199128
#> 2    median 0.0021554400
#> 3     lower 0.0005858173
#> 4     upper 0.0060140807

Transmission network

net <- transmission_network(
  from = c("cattle", "cattle", "dog"),
  to = c("dog", "human", "human")
)
network_risk(net)
#>     node out_degree in_degree total_degree
#> 1 cattle          2         0            2
#> 2    dog          1         1            2
#> 3  human          0         2            2