## ----include = FALSE----------------------------------------------------------
knitr::opts_chunk$set(collapse = TRUE, comment = "#>")
library(magentabook)

## -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
# 5-year horizon, real GBP, 2026 prices
years <- 0:4

# Status quo: GBP 1m capex in year 0, then GBP 100k opex per year
cost_a <- c(1e6, 1e5, 1e5, 1e5, 1e5)

# Enhanced: GBP 1.5m capex, GBP 150k opex
cost_b <- c(1.5e6, 1.5e5, 1.5e5, 1.5e5, 1.5e5)

# QALY profile: enhanced delivers more in steady-state
qaly_a <- c(0, 80, 80, 80, 80)
qaly_b <- c(0, 100, 110, 115, 115)

## -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
r  <- 0.015
df <- 1 / (1 + r)^years

pv_cost_a <- sum(cost_a * df)
pv_cost_b <- sum(cost_b * df)
pv_qaly_a <- sum(qaly_a * df)
pv_qaly_b <- sum(qaly_b * df)

c(pv_cost_a = pv_cost_a, pv_cost_b = pv_cost_b)
c(pv_qaly_a = pv_qaly_a, pv_qaly_b = pv_qaly_b)

## -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
cea_a <- mb_cea(cost = pv_cost_a, effect = pv_qaly_a, label = "Status quo")
cea_b <- mb_cea(cost = pv_cost_b, effect = pv_qaly_b, label = "Enhanced")
cea_a
cea_b

## -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
icer <- mb_icer(
  cost_a   = pv_cost_a, effect_a = pv_qaly_a,
  cost_b   = pv_cost_b, effect_b = pv_qaly_b,
  label_a  = "Status quo", label_b  = "Enhanced"
)
icer

## -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
sapply(
  c(NICE_low = 20000, NICE_high = 30000, MB_central = 70000),
  function(wtp) mb_inb(icer$delta_cost, icer$delta_effect, wtp)
)

## -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
set.seed(20260427)
n_draws <- 5000
delta_cost   <- rnorm(n_draws, mean = icer$delta_cost,   sd = 1e5)
delta_effect <- rnorm(n_draws, mean = icer$delta_effect, sd = 30)

ceac <- mb_ceac(
  delta_cost, delta_effect,
  wtp_grid = seq(0, 100000, by = 5000)
)
ceac

## -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
sms_b <- mb_sms_rate(
  level = 5, study = "Pilot RCT of the enhanced option",
  design = "Cluster RCT, 30 GP practices",
  notes = "Power calculation per mb_sample_size()"
)

conf <- mb_confidence(
  rating                 = "high",
  question               = "Does the enhanced option deliver more QALYs",
  evidence_strength      = "Single Level 5 cluster RCT plus modelled extrapolation",
  methodological_quality = "Strong: randomisation worked, follow-up rate > 90%",
  generalisability       = "Tested in a representative sample of UK GP practices",
  rationale              = "RCT plus consistent observational evidence"
)

report <- mb_evaluation_report(
  toc = mb_theory_of_change(
    inputs = "GBP 1.5m capex + GBP 150k opex p.a.",
    activities = "Enhanced clinical pathway",
    outputs = "More patients treated to standard",
    outcomes = "Higher QALYs gained per patient",
    impact = "Improved population health"
  ),
  sms = sms_b,
  confidence = conf,
  cea = list(cea_a, cea_b, icer),
  name = "Enhanced clinical pathway evaluation"
)
report

## ----eval = FALSE-------------------------------------------------------------
# # Same cashflows, discounted via greenbook's kinked STPR
# 
# pv_cost_a <- abs(greenbook::gb_npv(-cost_a, schedule = "health"))
# pv_cost_b <- abs(greenbook::gb_npv(-cost_b, schedule = "health"))
# pv_qaly_a <- greenbook::gb_npv(qaly_a, schedule = "health")
# pv_qaly_b <- greenbook::gb_npv(qaly_b, schedule = "health")
# 
# # Identical magentabook calls from here on
# cea_a <- mb_cea(pv_cost_a, pv_qaly_a, label = "Status quo")
# cea_b <- mb_cea(pv_cost_b, pv_qaly_b, label = "Enhanced")
# icer  <- mb_icer(pv_cost_a, pv_qaly_a, pv_cost_b, pv_qaly_b)
# 
# # Long-horizon appraisals see the kink: STPR steps from 3.5 percent
# # (or 1.5 percent on health) down through 1.0 percent at year 300.
# # Manual discount factors don't capture that; greenbook does.